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Complex Extreme Sea Levels Prediction Analysis: Karachi Coast Case Study.

Faisal Ahmed Khan¹, Tariq Masood Ali Khan¹, Ali Najah Ahmed²

¹Institute of Environmental Studies, University of Karachi, Karachi 75270, Pakistan.

Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)

|December 8, 2020

Summary

Extreme sea levels along Pakistan's Karachi coast are increasing, with tides often surpassing storm surges. Analysis shows a 2.1 mm/year rise in extreme sea levels, indicating a need for coastal adaptation strategies.

Keywords:

Pakistan coast annual maximum method complex system prediction extreme sea level prediction joint probability method

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Area of Science:

Oceanography
Coastal Engineering
Climate Science

Background:

Karachi coast experiences significant tidal influences, with tides frequently exceeding storm surge magnitudes.
Historical data indicates a rising trend in both mean sea level and extreme sea levels.
Tropical Cyclone Yemyin in 2007 impacted the Pakistan coast, highlighting the vulnerability to extreme weather events.

Purpose of the Study:

To analyze extreme sea level trends using 10 years of tide gauge data from Karachi port.
To determine return periods of extreme sea levels using statistical methods.
To assess the contribution of tidal and non-tidal components to extreme sea levels.

Main Methods:

Analysis of 10 years (2007-2016) of hourly tide gauge data.
Application of the Joint Probability Method (JPM) and Annual Maximum Method (AMM) for statistical analysis.
Merrifield criteria used to evaluate tidal dominance versus non-tidal residuals.

Main Results:

AMM and JPM methods showed compatible results for extreme sea level return periods within 95% confidence intervals.
Observed an increasing trend in extreme sea levels, with an increment rate of 2.1 mm/year.
Karachi coast is tidally dominated, with non-tidal residuals contributing only 10% to extreme sea levels.

Conclusions:

Extreme sea levels in Karachi are rising, driven primarily by tidal factors rather than non-tidal residuals.
Tidal analysis confirms the dominance of tidal components in extreme sea level events.
Findings support the need for enhanced coastal management and adaptation strategies for the Karachi coast.