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A Unified Theory of Human Judgements and Decision-Making under Uncertainty
Raffaele Pisano1, Sandro Sozzo2
1Institute of Electronics, Microelectronics and Nanotechnology (IEMN), Lille University, Avenue Poincaré CS 60069, CEDEX, 59652 Villeneuve d'Ascq, France.
Abstract:
Growing empirical evidence reveals that traditional set-theoretic structures cannot in general be applied to cognitive phenomena. This has raised several problems, as illustrated, for example, by probability judgement errors and decision-making (DM) errors. We propose here a unified theoretical perspective which applies the mathematical formalism of quantum theory in Hilbert space to cognitive domains. In this perspective, judgements and decisions are described as intrinsically non-deterministic processes which involve a contextual interaction between a conceptual entity and the cognitive context surrounding it. When a given phenomenon is considered, the quantum-theoretic framework identifies entities, states, contexts, properties and outcome statistics, and applies the mathematical formalism of quantum theory to model the considered phenomenon. We explain how the quantum-theoretic framework works in a variety of judgement and decision situations where systematic and significant deviations from classicality occur.
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