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Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)-Based Aggregation Mechanism for Resilience Measurement: NATO Aggregated Resilience

Jan Hodicky1, Gökhan Özkan2, Hilmi Özdemir2

  • 1NATO Headquarters Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, Norfolk, VA 23511, USA.

Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|December 8, 2020
PubMed
Summary

NATO developed an aggregated resilience model using system dynamics and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to understand civil environment impacts on military operations. This enhanced model improves decision-making for resilience management.

Keywords:
Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)NATO resilienceresilience aggregationresilience measurementsystem dynamics

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Area of Science:

  • Systems Engineering
  • Operations Research
  • International Relations

Background:

  • Resilience is a complex system with dynamic behaviors, crucial for international organizations like NATO.
  • Measuring resilience is vital for understanding the civil environment's impact on military operations.
  • NATO previously developed a prototype model for resilience assessment using system dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To present an upgraded, aggregated resilience model for NATO.
  • To detail the model's structure, aggregation mechanism, and shock parametrization.
  • To enhance the prototype model's decision support capabilities.

Main Methods:

  • System dynamics modeling and simulation paradigm.
  • Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for the aggregation mechanism to mitigate bias and enhance scenario planning.
  • Development of enhanced input and decision support system pages.

Main Results:

  • An aggregated resilience model was created, upgrading the prototype.
  • The model incorporates AHP for weighted resilience and risk parameters.
  • A decision support system provides a strategic cockpit for situational awareness.

Conclusions:

  • The developed model offers a robust tool for resilience management.
  • The model's enhancements support better 'what-if' scenario analysis and decision-making.
  • This approach can inform resilience strategies in other international organizations.