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Modelling Excess Mortality in Covid-19-Like Epidemics.

Zdzislaw Burda1

  • 1Faculty of Physics and Applied Computer Science, AGH University of Science and Technology, al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow, Poland.

Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|December 8, 2020
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Summary

Simulations show that slowing epidemics too much early on increases their duration without significantly reducing long-term deaths. Hybrid lockdown strategies are particularly inefficient for controlling disease spread.

Keywords:
Monte–Carlo simulationsagent-based modellingepidemic modelsrandom geometric networks

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Computational modeling
  • Public health

Background:

  • Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are crucial for managing epidemics.
  • Understanding the impact of NPIs on epidemic dynamics and healthcare capacity is vital.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the cumulative deaths from hypothetical COVID-19-like epidemics using an agent-based model.
  • To compare various non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies, including social distancing and lockdowns.

Main Methods:

  • Development of an agent-based model simulating epidemic spread, ventilator availability, and mortality.
  • Modeling local and non-local disease transmission on random geometric networks.
  • Utilizing Monte Carlo simulations with parameters reflecting USA and Poland.

Main Results:

  • Strategies significantly slowing early epidemic spread do not substantially decrease long-term deaths and prolong the epidemic duration.
  • Hybrid strategies involving temporary lockdowns followed by complete release proved inefficient.
  • Healthcare system capacity, simulated by ventilator availability, influences mortality outcomes.

Conclusions:

  • Aggressive early mitigation may prolong epidemics without commensurate benefits in reducing overall mortality.
  • Adaptive or phased NPI strategies require careful consideration to avoid inefficiency.
  • Agent-based modeling provides a valuable tool for evaluating public health interventions during epidemics.