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Past and Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in Europe
Fanny Janssen1,2, Shady El Gewily2, Anastasios Bardoutsos2
1Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, KNAW/University of Groningen, Lange Houtstraat 19, 2511 CV The Hague, The Netherlands.
Future alcohol-attributable mortality (AAMF) in Europe is projected to decline significantly by 2060. This trend requires sustained public health efforts, especially in Eastern and South-western Europe.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Demography
Background:
- Alcohol consumption poses a significant public health challenge in Europe.
- Estimates of future alcohol-attributable mortality (AAMF) for European countries are scarce and typically short-term.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project age-specific AAMF up to 2060 across 26 European countries.
- To provide long-term projections based on historical trends and advanced modeling.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study data on country-, sex-, age-, and year-specific AAMF (1990-2016).
- Adjusted AAMF data for older age groups.
- Applied an advanced age-period-cohort projection methodology to ensure realistic future trends and avoid sex/country crossovers.
Main Results:
- Projected AAMF levels are expected to decline in all European countries and converge between sexes.
- By 2060, average projected AAMF is 5.1% for men and 1.4% for women, down from 10.1% and 3.3% in 2016.
- Higher AAMF for men is projected in Eastern and South-western Europe compared to North-western Europe.
Conclusions:
- The proportion of mortality attributable to alcohol is projected to decrease across all 26 European countries.
- Achieving these projected declines necessitates robust and continuous public health interventions.
- Targeted public health action is particularly crucial for specific countries in Eastern and North-western Europe.
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