Why climate change should generally lead to lighter coloured animals

How species will adapt to future climate change is a key question in modern biology. One way to predict such adaptation is to draw from our knowledge of current spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. These are often summarised by different ecogeographical rules that describe how environmental gradients predict geographic variation in form and function. A recent review in Current Biology [1] synthesises how ecogeographical rules can lead to predictions about future responses to climate change in terms of appendage size, physiology, life-history traits, distribution and colour. Based on Gloger's rule, which predicts darker coloured animals in warm and wet environments, Tian and Benton [1] suggest that animals will become darker with global warming. Although the authors mention that uncertainties in the way this ecogeographical rule is interpreted make predictions difficult [1], here we argue that the opposite scenario is more likely - that selection will favour animals with lighter colours.