Field data confirm the ability of a biophysical model to predict wild primate body temperature

In the face of climate change there is an urgent need to understand how animal performance is affected by environmental conditions. Biophysical models that use principles of heat and mass transfer can be used to explore how an animal's morphology, physiology, and behavior interact with its environment in terms of energy, mass and water balances to affect fitness and performance. We used Niche Mapper™ (NM) to build a vervet monkey (Chlorocebus pygerythrus) biophysical model and tested the model's ability to predict core body temperature (T_b) variation and thermal stress against T_b and behavioral data collected from wild vervets in South Africa. The mean observed T_b in both males and females was within 0.5 °C of NM's predicted T_bs for 91% of hours over the five-year study period. This is the first time that NM's T_b predictions have been validated against field data from a wild endotherm. Overall, these results provide confidence that NM can accurately predict thermal stress and can be used to provide insight into the thermoregulatory consequences of morphological (e.g., body size, shape, fur depth), physiological (e.g. T_b plasticity) and behavioral (e.g., huddling, resting, shade seeking) adaptations. Such an approach allows users to test hypotheses about how animals adapt to thermoregulatory challenges and make informed predictions about potential responses to environmental change such as climate change or habitat conversion. Importantly, NM's animal submodel is a general model that can be adapted to other species, requiring only basic information on an animal's morphology, physiology and behavior.