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Assessing Uncertainty in the Rooting of the SARS-CoV-2 Phylogeny
Lenore Pipes1, Hongru Wang1, John P Huelsenbeck1
1Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Molecular Biology and Evolution
|December 9, 2020
Summary
Determining the SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) root is complex. Phylogenetic methods yield conflicting results, suggesting limited evidence for pinpointing the virus origin or early spread.
Area of Science:
- Virology
- Phylogenetics
- Molecular Evolution
Background:
- Understanding the origin and early transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is crucial.
- Previous phylogenetic analyses of SARS-CoV-2 have employed inconsistent rooting strategies.
- Discrepancies in rooting methods hinder definitive conclusions about viral origins.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate various rooting strategies for the SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetic tree.
- To assess the statistical uncertainty associated with different rooting methods.
- To evaluate the reliability of phylogenetic evidence in determining SARS-CoV-2 origins.
Main Methods:
- Application of multiple distinct phylogenetic rooting strategies.
- Utilized molecular clock-based methods for root placement.
- Employed outgroup rooting techniques for comparative analysis.
Main Results:
- Molecular clock methods suggested rooting within the B clade.
- Outgroup rooting methods indicated rooting within the A clade.
- Statistical incompatibility observed between the two main approaches, potentially due to molecular clock deviations or excess back-mutations.
- No method provided strong statistical support for any specific root placement.
Conclusions:
- Phylogenetic evidence alone is insufficient to definitively identify the origin of SARS-CoV-2.
- Caution is advised against making strong inferences about early viral spread based solely on current phylogenetic data.
- Further research may be needed to reconcile conflicting rooting results and improve understanding of SARS-CoV-2 evolution.
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