[Disease burden of liver cancer in China: an updated and integrated analysis on multi-data source evidence]

Objective: To analyze the disease burden of liver cancer in China. Methods: Based on eight data sources, including the series of Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report, three national death cause surveys in China, China Health Statistical Yearbook, China Death Cause Surveillance Datasets, GLOBOCAN, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5), WHO Mortality Database and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), the information on incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of liver cancer, were extracted for the analysis on the past, current and future disease burden caused by liver cancer in China. Results: 1) Past situation: The long-term data from 1973 to 2012 reported by the CI5 showed that in urban populations in China (taking Shanghai as an example), the incidence rate of liver cancer in males and females decreased by 41.3% and 36.3%, respectively, and that in rural areas (taking Qidong as an example) decreased by 32.3% and 12.2%, respectively. The Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Reports showed that the national incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer decreased by 8.1% and 12.8% respectively from 2005 to 2015. The Joinpoint analysis based on the data from the China Health Statistics Yearbook also showed a declining trend: the average annual percentage change of liver cancer mortality in China from 2002 to 2017 was -3.0% (P<0.05), and that in rural areas was -3.1% (P<0.05). 2) Current status: GLOBOCAN estimates that the rates of incidence, mortality and prevalence of liver cancer in China in 2018 were 18.3 per 100 000, 17.1 per 100 000 and 10.8 per 100 000, respectively. According to the latest annual report, the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in cancer registration areas in 2015 were 17.6 per 100 000 and 15.3 per 100 000, respectively, and both increased with age. The mortality rate was similar to that reported in 2017 (16.7 per 100 000) by the China Death Cause Surveillance Datasets, and the male to female ratio of live cancer deaths was estimated as 3.1. The GBD 2017 reports that the DALYs caused by liver cancer in China reached 11 153.0 thousand in 2017 (accounting for 53.7% of the global DALYs) and hepatitis B virus infection was always the leading cause. 3) Prediction: The GLOBOCAN 2018 predicts that, by 2040, the number of liver cancer cases and deaths in China would reach 591 000 and 572 000 (with an increase of 50.5% and 54.9%, respectively, compared with those in 2018), with a more significant increase in people over 70 years old. 4) Economic burden: According to the literature review of economic burden data on liver cancer, the direct medical expenditure per patient with liver cancer generally showed a rising trend. Conclusions: Multiple data sources indicate that the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in populations in China decreased in the past decades, indicating the effect of population interventions. However, the population-level disease burden are still substantial, and comprehensive intervention strategies need to be continually strengthened and optimized, especially the primary and secondary prevention.