Assessing whether the best land is cultivated first: A quantile analysis

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Economics
• Geographic Information Science
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Classical land rent theories posit that the highest quality land is cultivated first.
• Empirical evidence for this principle, particularly on a global scale, remains limited.
• Understanding drivers of land allocation is crucial for sustainable agriculture and food security.

Purpose of the Study:

• To empirically estimate the effects of agricultural suitability and market accessibility on cultivated land allocation.
• To analyze these effects across 15 world regions at a 30 arc-min resolution.
• To compare the relative importance of suitability versus accessibility in different regions and cropping densities.

Main Methods:

• Spatial analysis of cultivated areas using high-resolution data (30 arc-min).
• Econometric modeling incorporating agricultural suitability and market accessibility as key determinants.
• Quantile regression analysis to assess varying effects across different levels of cropland fraction.

Main Results:

• Both agricultural suitability and market accessibility significantly influence cropland allocation globally, but with substantial regional variations.
• Agricultural suitability is a primary driver in North America, the Middle East, North Africa, and Eastern Europe.
• Market accessibility is more influential in regions like Western Africa, while both factors have limited impact in South and Central America.

Conclusions:

• The study provides global empirical support for classical land rent theories, highlighting the nuanced roles of suitability and accessibility.
• Regional differences in land-use patterns are significantly shaped by the interplay of biophysical and socioeconomic factors.
• Densely cultivated lands are more responsive to agricultural suitability and market access, indicating targeted interventions may be effective.