The HIV care cascade in Manitoba, Canada: Methods, measures, and estimates to meet local needs

We describe the development of the first HIV care cascade for Manitoba, Canada, detailing steps taken to establish indicator definitions for each cascade step, and derive a full complement of local estimates.

Manitoba is a Canadian Prairie Province with disproportionately high annual HIV incidence. In 2013, a clinical cohort of people living with HIV was established within the primary HIV care program in Manitoba. Using cohort data from 2017, we describe the creation of a set of indicator definitions and calculate estimates for each cascade step to create the first Manitoban cascade model.

Of the 703 cohort participants categorized as alive and diagnosed, 638 (90.8%) were in care, 606 (86.2%) retained in care, 573 (81.5%) on treatment, and 523 (74.4%) virologically suppressed. The greatest point of leakage occurred between the first and second steps; 9.3% of those alive and diagnosed in 2017 were not in care in the same calendar year.

This is the first comprehensive examination of HIV clinical epidemiology in Manitoba using a cascade framework, with the potential inform programming to improve service coverage within Manitoba and significantly contribute to evidence informing provincial policies to support these efforts.