From bad to worse II: Risk amplification of the HPV vaccine on Facebook

The HPV vaccine is seen by many audiences as a health risk, but this perspective has seen little analysis. This study is the continuation of an analysis of the first decade of public, HPV-vaccine related Facebook posts. For this study, social amplification of risk framework concepts were analyzed to measure their relationships with post characteristics, engagement, and to see how those variables changed over time.

There were 6,506 public HPV vaccine-related Facebook posts (n = 6,506) within the first ten years after HPV vaccine's FDA approval (June 8, 2006 - June 8, 2016). Post characteristics, engagement, and social amplification of risk framework messages were coded (Krippendorf's alpha range: 0.67-1.00).

HPV vaccine risk amplification messages appeared in 39.5% of posts (n = 2,568), attenuated in 2.9% of post (n = 186), with the remaining 57.7% (n = 3,752) doing neither. Compared to groups, individuals were overrepresented in authoring HPV vaccine risk amplifying messages. Hyperlinks and negative tone towards the HPV vaccine. HPV vaccine risk amplifying messages also received significantly greater reaction (r = 0.050, p < 0.0001), comment (r = 0.030, p < 0.0001), and share counts (r = 0.028, p < 0.0001). The data showed evidence of forward momentum (Durbin-Watson values) of HPV vaccine risk amplification (0.006), related ripples (0.530), and impacts (1.376).

Nearly four out of every ten Facebook posts about the HPV vaccine contained messages that amplified the risk of HPV vaccine and the data suggest that these posts had momentum over time. Research must continue to address the perception of vaccine safety where the vaccine is perceived as the health threat, with deep research into online communities to discover the perceived ripples and impacts.