Scenario analysis of vehicular emission abatement procedures in Xi'an, China

Vehicular emissions contribute significantly to air pollution, and the number of vehicles in use is continuing to rise. Policymakers thus need to formulate vehicular emission reduction policies to improve urban air-quality. This study used different vehicle control scenarios to predict the associated potential of mitigating carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrogen oxide (NO_x), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM₁₀) in Xi'an China, in 2020 and 2025. One business-as-usual scenario and six control scenarios were established, and vehicular emission inventory was developed according to each scenario. The results revealed that eliminating high-emission vehicles and optimizing after-treatment devices would effectively reduce vehicular emissions. In addition, increasing the number of alternative fuel vehicles, restraining vehicle use, and restraining the growth of the vehicle population would all have certain effects on CO and VOCs emissions, but the effects would not be significant for NOx, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀. The results also indicated that if all control measures were stringently applied together, emissions of CO, VOCs, NO_x, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀ would be reduced by 51.66%, 51.58%, 30.19%,71.12%, and 71.81% in 2020, and 53.55%, 51.44%, 19.09%, 54.88%, and 55.51%, in 2025, respectively.