SWOT risk analysis towards sustainable aquifer management along the Eastern Mediterranean

This study examines the risks of seawater intrusion (SWI) in data scarce aquifers along the Eastern Mediterranean by quantifying the interaction of the main natural, anthropogenic and climatic drivers, while also considering varying abilities of implementing adaptation and mitigation measures. For this purpose, we conducted a semi-quantitative Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis representing a first attempt at integrating a complex physical process with multi layered influences in a SWOT analysis model that was tested at 26 coastal aquifers with varying levels of SWI severity. The analysis results showed alarming signs of SWI at several eastern and southeastern aquifers, particularly those underlying densely populated centers (i.e. Beirut, Lebanon; Magoza, Cyprus; Gaza, Palestine and the Nile Delta, Egypt). The analysis also highlighted adaptive capabilities that appear to be strong in Cyprus, Israel and Turkey, emerging in Egypt, and weak in Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine. The risks exhibited a strong and statistically significant positive relationship with the reported status of SWI at the tested aquifers thus providing an effective decision-making tool towards the preliminary assessment of SWI in regions with data scarcity. The study concludes with proposing a framework for sustainable aquifer management in the East Med region with emphasis on controlling SWI risks.