Prevalence of multimorbidity in South Africa: a systematic review protocol

Multimorbidity has increased globally over the past two decades, due to ageing populations and increased burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In a country like South Africa, with a growing burden of NCDs and a high prevalence of HIV, information on multimorbidity can improve planning for healthcare delivery and utilisation, and reduce costs in the context of constrained health resources. This review aims to synthesise prevalence studies on multimorbidity, and identify dominant clusters and trends of multimorbidity in South Africa.

We will search electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Scopus, JSTOR, POPLINE, PsycINFO, ScienceDirect, Web of Science and CINAHL), and the reference lists of included articles. Two researchers will independently screen title and abstracts, and then full text to identify studies published before and in 2020 that report on prevalence of multimorbidity in South Africa. Risk of bias assessments will be done for each study. Information on the prevalence of multimorbidity and disease clusters will be extracted from each study. Where possible, prevalence of specific clusters of multimorbidity will be pooled using a random effects meta-analysis to account for variability between studies. The I² statistic will be used to establish the extent of heterogeneity due to variation in prevalence estimates rather than due to chance. The systematic review will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses.

Only published journal articles will be included in the systematic review. This review received ethics approval as part of a larger project by the University of the Western Cape Biomedical Science Research Ethics Committee (BM20/5/8). The findings from this research will be used to estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity in South Africa and will contribute to the design of future research projects. The findings will be disseminated in a peer-reviewed journal article.

CRD42020196895.