Prediction of All-Cause Mortality Using an Echocardiography-Based Risk Score in Hemodialysis Patients

To derive an echocardiography-based prognostic score for a 3-year risk of mortality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD).

173 ESRD patients hospitalized in the second affiliated hospital of Soochow University from January 1, 2010, to July 31, 2016, were enrolled and followed up for 3 years. All subjects began to receive HD from recruitment. Baseline clinical and echocardiographic parameters were collected and screened for risk factors using univariate and multivariate analysis. The prognostic value of echocardiographic indexes was determined by concordance indexes and reclassification assay. Restricted cubic spline models (RCS) and forest plots were employed to visualize the association between risk factors and all-cause mortality. A multivariate nomogram including the identified factors was developed to estimate the prognosis.

After multivariate adjustment for advanced age, hypertension, diabetes, and decreased hemoglobin (Hb), echocardiographic indexes including left atrial diameter index (LADI), cardiac valvular calcification, and moderate to severe cardiac valve regurgitation were independently associated with the risk of 3-year mortality in HD patients. RCS showed that age, Hb, and LADI were positively associated with the risk of mortality. Adding multiple echocardiographic indexes to a basic model containing age, hypertension, diabetes, and Hb increased the concordance index and improved reclassification. A multivariate Cox model-derived nomogram showed the association between each factor and mortality by the end of follow-up.

Echocardiographic indexes showed independent predictive power for mortality in ESRD patients and may constitute a promising prognostic tool in this population.