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Predicting polytomous career choices in healthcare using probabilistic expectations data
1Swiss Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, Kirchlindachstrasse, Zollikofen, Switzerland.
Health Economics
|December 18, 2020
Summary
Healthcare assistants (HCA) can predict their future careers, with expectations offering valuable insights. Understanding these expectations can help increase transitions into nursing roles.
Area of Science:
- Health Services Research
- Labor Economics
- Sociology of Occupations
Background:
- Healthcare assistants (HCA) were established to bolster the nursing workforce.
- Limited research exists on the predictive accuracy of career expectations in occupations with multiple pathways.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare career expectations and outcomes for Swiss HCAs.
- To assess the predictive validity of HCAs' probabilistic career expectations.
- To inform policy for enhancing nursing transitions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a probabilistic online survey to elicit career expectations from HCAs.
- Analyzed expectations for various career alternatives, including nursing.
- Compared elicited expectations with actual career outcomes over time.
Main Results:
- Most respondents provided informative probabilistic answers, indicating significant career uncertainty.
- Individual expectations demonstrated substantial predictive power for actual career paths.
- Probabilistic expectations were more accurate for longer time horizons (4+ years) than shorter ones (2 years).
Conclusions:
- Eliciting choice probabilities in surveys is a viable method for capturing private information.
- Deviations between expectations and outcomes offer insights for workforce policy.
- Recommendations can be derived to facilitate HCAs' movement into nursing roles.
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