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Machine Learning Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 Polymerase Chain Reaction Results with Routine Blood Tests
Thomas Tschoellitsch1, Martin Dünser1, Carl Böck1
1Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Kepler University Hospital GmbH and Johannes Kepler University, Faculty of Medicine, Linz, Austria.
Objective:
The diagnosis of COVID-19 is based on the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in respiratory secretions, blood, or stool. Currently, reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is the most commonly used method to test for SARS-CoV-2.
Methods:
In this retrospective cohort analysis, we evaluated whether machine learning could exclude SARS-CoV-2 infection using routinely available laboratory values. A Random Forests algorithm with 28 unique features was trained to predict the RT-PCR results.
Results:
Out of 12,848 patients undergoing SARS-CoV-2 testing, routine blood tests were simultaneously performed in 1357 patients. The machine learning model could predict SARS-CoV-2 test results with an accuracy of 86% and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.74.
Conclusion:
Machine learning methods can reliably predict a negative SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test result using standard blood tests.

