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Measuring and Controlling for the Compromise Effect When Estimating Risk Preference Parameters.

Jonathan P Beauchamp1, Daniel J Benjamin2, David I Laibson3

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The compromise effect, where middle options seem more appealing, can bias economic research. This study quantifies its impact and develops a robust method to accurately measure risk preferences, overcoming this choice bias.

Keywords:
B49D03D14D83G11compromise effectcumulative prospect theoryloss aversionrisk preferences

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral Economics
  • Decision Theory
  • Experimental Economics

Background:

  • The compromise effect, a cognitive bias, enhances the appeal of options positioned centrally within a choice set.
  • This bias poses significant challenges for economic research by potentially distorting inferences about underlying preference parameters.
  • Understanding and mitigating this effect is crucial for accurate economic modeling and policy implications.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the bias introduced by the compromise effect on the estimation of risk preference parameters.
  • To develop and validate a novel discrete-choice model capable of disentangling risk preferences from the compromise effect.
  • To quantify the magnitude of the compromise effect and its influence on choice behavior.

Main Methods:

  • An experiment involving 550 participants making choices over lotteries presented in multiple price lists (MPLs).
  • Manipulation of the compromise effect by systematically varying the middle options within each MPL.
  • Augmentation of a standard discrete-choice model with parameters to penalize choices deviating from the set's midpoint.

Main Results:

  • Risk preference estimates were found to be unstable and sensitive to manipulations of the compromise effect when using a standard model.
  • The enhanced discrete-choice model successfully isolated the compromise effect, revealing its significant economic magnitude.
  • Robust risk preference parameter estimates were achieved, demonstrating independence from compromise effect manipulations.

Conclusions:

  • The compromise effect demonstrably biases risk preference estimations in economic models.
  • The developed augmented discrete-choice model provides a reliable method for measuring both risk preferences and the compromise effect accurately.
  • This research offers a pathway to more precise economic analyses by accounting for cognitive biases in decision-making.