The development of a predictive risk model on post-ablation hemobilia: a multicenter matched case-control study

Area of Science:

• Hepatobiliary oncology
• Interventional radiology
• Medical device technology

Background:

• Post-ablation hemobilia is a rare but serious complication following thermal ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).
• Accurate risk stratification is crucial for patient management and procedural planning in HCC treatment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a predictive risk model for post-ablation hemobilia in patients with HCC.
• To identify independent risk factors associated with the occurrence of post-ablation hemobilia.

Main Methods:

• A retrospective, multicenter, matched case-control study involving 21 patients with post-ablation hemobilia and 63 controls.
• Risk factors were identified using univariate and multivariate regression analyses.
• A risk score model was constructed based on adjusted odds ratios (ORs).

Main Results:

• Maximum tumor diameter >47 mm (OR = 5.983) and minimum applicator distance to the portal trunk ≤8 mm (OR = 4.821) were identified as independent risk factors.
• The developed risk model demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.76.
• Hemodynamic instability and inaccurate embolization may contribute to hemobilia recurrence.

Conclusions:

• Tumor size and applicator proximity to the portal trunk are significant predictors of post-ablation hemobilia.
• The developed risk score model provides a valuable tool for predicting post-ablation hemobilia risk in HCC patients.
• This study represents the first development of a risk score model for post-ablation hemobilia.