As Births Diminish and Deaths Increase, Natural Decrease becomes More Widespread in Rural America

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Population Studies
• Rural Sociology

Background:

• US population growth reached a century low prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.
• Nonmetropolitan America experienced historical population loss from 2010-2019.
• Natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) is an increasing demographic trend, particularly in rural areas.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the growing incidence of natural population decrease in both rural and urban US counties.
• To update the understanding of demographic shifts using recent data.
• To assess the implications of Covid-19 on mortality and fertility trends.

Main Methods:

• Utilized recent population data.
• Employed a multivariate spatial regression model.
• Analyzed county-level data on births and deaths.

Main Results:

• Deaths exceeded births in 46% of US counties, a near-record high.
• Nearly 79% of counties with natural decrease were nonmetropolitan.
• The study identifies key factors contributing to natural population decrease.

Conclusions:

• The findings highlight a significant demographic shift towards natural decrease across the US.
• The Covid-19 pandemic is expected to exacerbate mortality increases and fertility declines.
• Future nonmetropolitan demographic trends will be significantly impacted by these ongoing changes.