The Feasibility of Outpatient Shoulder Arthroplasty: Risk Stratification and Predictive Probability Modeling

Whether shoulder arthroplasty can be performed on an outpatient basis depends on appropriate patient selection. The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors for adverse events (AEs) following shoulder arthroplasty and to generate predictive models to improve patient selection. This was a retrospective review of prospectively collected data using a single institution shoulder arthroplasty registry as well as the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database, including subjects undergoing hemiarthroplasty, total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA), and reverse TSA. Predicted probability of suitability for same-day discharge was calculated from multivariable logistic models for different patient subgroups based on age, comorbidities, and Charlson/Deyo Index scores. A total of 2314 shoulders (2079 subjects) in the institutional registry met inclusion criteria for this study. Younger age, higher body mass index (BMI), male sex, and prior steroid injection were all significantly associated with suitability for discharge, whereas preoperative narcotic use, comorbidities (heart disease and anemia/other blood disease), and Charlson/Deyo Index score of 2 were associated with AEs that might prevent same-day discharge. Compared with TSA, reverse TSA was associated with less suitability for discharge (P=.01). On querying the ACS-NSQIP database, 15,254 patients were identified. Female sex, BMI less than 35 kg/m², American Society of Anesthesiologists class III/IV, preoperative anemia, functional dependence, low pre-operative albumin, and hemiarthroplasty were associated with unsuitability for discharge. Males 55 to 59 years old with no comorbidities nor history of narcotic use formed the lowest risk subgroup. Transfusion is the primary driver of AEs. Strategies to avoid this complication should be explored. Risk stratification will improve the ability to identify patients who can safely undergo outpatient shoulder arthroplasty. [Orthopedics. 2021;44(2):e215-e222.].