Ordering sequential competitions to reduce order relevance: Soccer penalty shootouts

Area of Science:

• Sports Science
• Game Theory
• Statistical Modeling

Background:

• The order of turns in sequential competitions can influence outcomes.
• Previous research on penalty shootouts shows mixed evidence regarding a first-mover advantage.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the impact of shooting order in penalty shootouts.
• To evaluate alternative ordering systems for fairness.

Main Methods:

• Collected an extensive dataset of penalty shootouts.
• Modeled shootouts as a probability network.
• Conducted counterfactual analysis using calibrated models.

Main Results:

• Confirmed a first-shooter advantage in penalty shootouts, though smaller than previously reported.
• Modeling suggests alternating the first shot reduces the ordering impact.

Conclusions:

• The first-shooting advantage in penalty shootouts is statistically significant but modest.
• Alternating the first shot is a viable strategy to enhance fairness in penalty shootouts.
• Findings support ongoing discussions by the International Football Association Board (IFAB) regarding rule changes.