Spatio-Temporal Model for Predicting Spring Hatch of the Spotted Lanternfly (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae).

Area of Science:

• Entomology
• Pest Management
• Climate Science

Background:

• Spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) is an invasive insect pest.
• Understanding egg development is crucial for predicting pest emergence and managing populations.
• Temperature is a key environmental factor influencing insect development rates.

Purpose of the Study:

• To determine the effect of temperature on spotted lanternfly egg development rate.
• To estimate base temperature thresholds for egg development.
• To develop a model for predicting seasonal egg hatch and spring emergence.

Main Methods:

• Egg masses were incubated at five constant temperatures (19.9–30°C).
• Linear regression was used to estimate base temperature thresholds from developmental rates.
• Accumulated degree-days (ADD) and logistic equations were calculated to predict cumulative hatch.
• Models were validated using field observations from Pennsylvania and Virginia.

Main Results:

• A combined analysis of Pennsylvania and Korean data yielded a base temperature threshold of 10.4°C.
• Logistic models using ADD accurately predicted the timing of spotted lanternfly egg hatch.
• Spatiotemporal prediction maps were generated by integrating the model with weather data.

Conclusions:

• The 10.4°C base temperature threshold is a reliable estimate for predicting spotted lanternfly spring emergence.
• The developed model aids in pest surveillance and management by predicting emergence timing.
• Integrating predictive models with weather data and mapping tools enhances pest management strategies.