Risk factors of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma that predispose patients to local recurrence

Currently, less aggressive treatment or even active surveillance of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is widely accepted and recommended as a therapeutic management option. However, there are some concerns about these approaches. We investigated whether there are any demographic, clinical and ultrasound characteristics of PTMC patients that are easy to obtain and clinically available before surgery to help clinicians make proper therapeutic decisions.

We performed a retrospective chart review of 5,021 patients with thyroid tumors surgically treated in one center in 2008-2018. Finally, 182 (3.62%) PTMC patients were selected (158 (86.8%) females and 24 (13.2%) males, mean age 48.8±15.4 years). We analyzed the disease-free survival (DFS) time of the PTMC patients according to demographic and histopathological parameters. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the relationships of demographic, clinical and ultrasound characteristics with aggressive histopathological features.

Age ≥55 years, hypoechogenicity, microcalcifications, irregular tumor shape, smooth margins and high vascularity significantly increased the risk for minimal extrathyroidal extension (minETE), lymph node metastasis (LNM), and capsular and vascular invasion (p<0.0001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated a statistically significant risk of LNM (OR = 5.98, 95% CI: 2.32-15.38, p = 0.0002) and trends toward significantly higher rates of minETE and capsular and vascular invasion (OR = 2.24, 95% CI: 0.97-5.19, p = 0.056) in patients ≥55 years than in their younger counterparts. The DFS time was significantly shorter in patients ≥55 years (p = 0.015), patients with minETE and capsular and vascular invasion (p = 0.001 for all), patients with tumor size >5 mm (p = 0.021), and patients with LNM (p = 0.002).

The absence of microcalcifications, irregular tumor shape, blunt margins, hypoechogenicity and high vascularity in PTMC patients below 55 years and with tumor diameters below 5 mm may allow clinicians to select individuals with a low risk of local recurrence so that they can receive less aggressive management.