R₀ and R_e of COVID-19: Can We Predict When the Pandemic Outbreak will be Contained?

R₀ (R naught) is the basic reproduction number, also known as basic reproduction ratio or rate which is an epidemiological metric used to measure the transmissibility of infectious agents. R₀ is a derivative of the following variables-the duration of infectivity after the patient gets infected, the likelihood of transmission of infection per contact between a susceptible person and an infectious individual, and the contact rate. R₀ is usually estimated retrospectively from serial epidemiological data or using theoretical mathematical models. Epidemiologists can calculate R₀ using contact-tracing data, the most common method is to use cumulative incidence data. When mathematical models are used, R₀ values are estimated using ordinary differential equations. R₀ of COVID-19 as initially estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO) was between 1.4 and 2.4. The forecast is of critical importance as it will help the governments to have an estimate as well as strategize quickly to avoid any unfavorable condition.

Achaiah NC, Subbarajasetty SB, Shetty RM. R₀ and R_e of COVID-19: Can We Predict When the Pandemic Outbreak will be Contained? Indian J Crit Care Med 2020;24(11):1125-1127.