[Prediction of potential geographical distribution patterns of Pyrus xerophila under different climate scenarios.]

Pyrus xerophila has strong resistance to drought, cold, salt, and rust. It is one of the main rootstock types of pear in Northwest China, with high production value. However, its habitat is seriously damaged. The prediction of the geographical distribution of P. xerophila under different climate scenarios will provide important scientific basis for rational development and utilization of resources and the protection of diversity. Based on MaxEnt model and ArcGIS spatial analysis, the potential spatial distribution pattern of P. xerophila in the current and future (2050, 2070) was constructed using comprehensive and accurate distribution records and high-resolution environmental data, and the relative importance of environmental factors was evaluated. The results showed that the suitable habitat area of P. xerophila was 3.32×10⁵ km², mainly located in eastern Qinghai, southern Gansu, southern Ningxia, central Shaanxi, southern Shanxi and western Henan. Mean UV-B of the month with lowest UV-B and altitude were identified as the critical factors shaping habitat availability for P. xerophila. Overall, with global warming, the potential habitat for P. xerophila might decrease in 2050 and 2070 under different CO₂ climate scenarios. Real-time monitoring of P. xerophila populations should be enhanced.