Serum lactate level predicts 6-months mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus-related decompensated cirrhosis: a...

The prediction of prognosis is an important part of management in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related decompensated cirrhosis patients with high long-term mortality. Lactate is a known predictor of outcome in critically ill patients. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of lactate in HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis patients. We performed a single-centre, observational, retrospective study of 405 HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis patients. Individuals were evaluated within 24 h after admission and the primary outcome was evaluated at 6-months. Multivariable analyses were used to determine whether lactate was independently associated with the prognosis of HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis patients. The area under the ROC (AUROC) was calculated to assess the predictive accuracy compared with existing scores. Serum lactate level was significantly higher in non-surviving patients than in surviving patients. Multivariable analyses demonstrated that lactate was an independent risk factor of 6-months mortality (odds ratio: 2.076, P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn to evaluate the discriminative ability of lactate for 6-months mortality (AUROC: 0.716, P < 0.001). Based on our patient cohort, the new scores (Model For End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) + lactate score, Child-Pugh + lactate score) had good accuracy for predicting 6-months mortality (AUROC = 0.769, P < 0.001; AUROC = 0.766, P < 0.001). Additionally, the performance of the new scores was superior to those of existing scores (all P < 0.001). Serum lactate at admission may be useful for predicting 6-months mortality in HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis patients, and the predictive value of the MELD score and Child-Pugh score was improved by adjusting lactate. Serum lactate should be part of the rapid diagnosis and initiation of therapy to improve clinical outcome.