Factors Affecting Under-Five Mortality in Ethiopia: A Multilevel Negative Binomial Model

Even though remarkable declines in under-five mortality rates noticed globally, nearly 5.6 million children still die annually before celebrating their fifth birthday. The 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) report revealed that 67 children per 1000 live births died before the fifth birthday. This study aimed at determining factors affecting under-five mortality in Ethiopia using EDHS, 2016.

The data were retrieved from the EDHS 2016, and a total weighted number of 11,023 under-five children were included. Descriptive statistics were reported using tables, graphs, and texts. A multilevel negative binomial regression model was fitted, and adjusted incidence rate (ARR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) and a p-value <0.05 were reported. The deviance test was used to check the goodness of fit.

Mother attained higher education (ARR=0.25, 95% CI: 0.10-0.66), female-headed household (ARR=1.32, 95% CI: 1.05-1.66), age of household head (AIRR=1.07, 95% CI: 1.03,1.11), preceding birth interval ≥48 months (ARR=0.51, 95% CI: 0.42-0.61), child who had history of diarrhea (ARR=1.23, 95% CI: 1.08-1.41), multiple birth type (ARR=1.80, 95% CI: 1.34-2.42), mothers who delivered in health facility (ARR=0.86, 95% CI: 0.73,0.94), residents of Addis Ababa (ARR=0.52, 95% CI: 0.28-0.98), and Amhara region (ARR=1.43, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.88) were statistically significant with the number of under-five mortality.

In this study, under-five mortality remains a public health problem in Ethiopia. Educational status of the mother, women delivered at health institution, preceding birth interval 24-35 and ≥48, and residents of Addis Ababa reduced the incidence of under-five mortality. On the other hand, being a female household head, age of mother at first giving birth, being employed, having multiple births, and childhood diarrhea were associated with a higher incidence of under-five mortality. This finding suggests that enhancing opportunities to female education, addressing regional disparities, and encouraging mothers to deliver at health institutions will help to reduce the burden of under-five mortality.