Long-term nationwide spatiotemporal changes of freshwater temperature in Japan during 1982-2016

We analyzed freshwater temperature data from 1982 to 2016 throughout Japan to better understand how waters are warming in Japan. We used linear regression to determine the temperature change rate and Mann-Kendall tests to identify significant temporal trends in the annual maximum and mean temperatures. Among 11,240 monitoring sites screened, 159 with fewer missing values were selected for analysis. On the basis of this analysis, we identified and ranked the sites showing significant temporal increasing or decreasing trends for future management. At nearly half (42%) of the analyzed sites, the annual mean freshwater temperature was increasing; thus, in the future, adverse impacts from warm temperatures may increase in those aquatic ecosystems. The temperature change rate of fresh water was higher than that of air, indicating that the observed increases in freshwater temperature were not due to atmospheric warming only. Among individual sites, the annual maximum freshwater temperature change rate ranged from -1.27 to 1.91 °C/decade, and the annual mean rate ranged from -1.13 to 1.28 °C/decade. Few other studies have reported decreasing temperatures for fresh water. We expect our results will improve understanding of how freshwater temperatures are changing at a large scale, enhance understanding of human impacts on the aquatic environment, support effective management of ecosystems experiencing temperature changes, and help to minimize the loss of biodiversity over the next half century.