Meta-analysis of mortality risk in octogenarians undergoing emergency general surgery operations

This study aimed to quantify the risk of perioperative mortality in octogenarians undergoing emergency general surgical operations and to compare such risk between octogenarians and nonoctogenarians.

A systematic review was performed in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses standards to identify studies reporting the mortality risk in patients aged over 80 years undergoing emergency general surgery operations. The primary outcome measure was 30-day mortality, which was stratified based on American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) status and procedure type. The certainty of evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation system. Random-effects models were applied to calculate pooled outcome data.

Analysis of 66,701 octogenarians from 22 studies showed that the risk of 30-day mortality was 26% (95% confidence interval 18%-34%) for all operations: 29% (95% confidence interval 25%-33%) for emergency laparotomy; 9% (95% confidence interval 1%-23%) for nonlaparotomy emergency operations; 21% (95% confidence interval 13%-30%) for colon resection; 17% (95% confidence interval 11%-25%) for small bowel resection; 9% (95% confidence interval 7%-11%) for adhesiolysis; 6% (95% confidence interval 5.9%-6.8%) for perforated ulcer repair; 3% (95% confidence interval 2.6%-4%) for appendicectomy; 3% (95% confidence interval 2.8%-3.3%) for cholecystectomy; and 5% (95% confidence interval 0.2%-14%) for hernia repair. When stratified based on the patient's ASA status, the risk was 11% (95% confidence interval 4%-20%) for ASA 2 status, 22% (95% confidence interval 10%-36%) for ASA 3 status, 39% (95% confidence interval 29%-48%) for ASA 4 status, and 94% (95% confidence interval 77%-100%) for ASA 5 status. The risk was higher in octogenarians compared with nonoctogenarians (odds ratio: 4.07, 95% confidence interval 2.40-6.89), patients aged 70 to 79 (odds ratio: 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.13-1.31), and patients aged 50 to 79 (odds ratio: 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.68-2.45).

The risk of perioperative mortality in octogenarians undergoing emergency general surgical operations is high. The risk of perioperative death in this group is higher than in younger patients. Laparotomy, bowel resection, and ASA status above 3 carry the highest risk.