Lapse, Relapse, and Recovery in Physical Activity Interventions for Latinas: a Survival Analysis

Physical activity (PA) research extensively focuses on initiation of PA, yet lapse and relapse among PA intervention participants are less well understood, particularly among minority populations such as Latinas in the USA. This study aimed to (1) determine the probability of lapse during two PA interventions for Latinas; (2) assess demographic, psychosocial, and environmental predictors of the amount of time until first lapse; and (3) identify factors predictive of lapse recovery.

Data from 176 Latina intervention participants were pooled. Survival functions and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to illustrate probability of lapse. Cox proportional hazard models assessed predictors of time to lapse. Logistic regressions identified predictors of lapse recovery.

The probability of lapse after 1 month of starting to exercise was 18%, escalating to 34% after 4 months. Predictors of earlier lapse included various psychosocial constructs (i.e., self-efficacy and various processes of change), but none of the measured environmental factors, and only one demographic factor (≥ 2 children under 18). Increased use of consciousness raising at 2 months was associated with lower likelihood of lapse recovery, yet use of behavioral processes of change at 6 months was associated with higher likelihood of recovery.

Lapsing may not be pre-determined by demographic and environmental characteristics. On the other hand, skills that can be learned through interventions, such as skills to improve self-efficacy, seem important in the delay or prevention of lapses. Results pertaining to lapse recovery are less clear.