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Thinking Counterfactually Supports Children's Evidence Evaluation in Causal Learning
Jae Engle1,2, Caren M Walker1
1University of California, San Diego.
Child Development
|January 9, 2021
Summary
Counterfactual thinking helps young children evaluate evidence and choose the best explanation, especially when new information conflicts with their existing beliefs. This strategy is more effective than simply explaining the situation.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Development
- Developmental Psychology
- Causal Reasoning
Background:
- Learners often face ambiguous evidence supporting multiple potential causes.
- Discriminating between competing hypotheses is a key aspect of cognitive development.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate if counterfactual thinking aids 5-year-olds in selecting between competing causal hypotheses.
- To compare the effectiveness of counterfactual prompts versus a related explanatory scaffold.
Main Methods:
- Two experiments were conducted with 120 five-year-old children.
- Experiment 1: Assessed if counterfactuals improve evidence evaluation for competing causes.
- Experiment 2: Examined counterfactuals against prior beliefs when evidence conflicted.
Main Results:
- Counterfactuals supported evidence evaluation, leading children to favor causes explaining more data.
- When hypotheses conflicted with prior beliefs, counterfactuals led children to privilege data-supported hypotheses.
- Children using explanation relied more on pre-existing beliefs.
Conclusions:
- Counterfactual thinking directs attention to crucial, disambiguating evidence.
- Counterfactual prompts are more effective than explanation when new evidence challenges existing beliefs in young learners.
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