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Intertidal wetland vegetation dynamics under rising sea levels
Duncan Rayner1, William Glamore1, Lisa Grandquist2
1Water Research Laboratory, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW Sydney, NSW, Australia.
The Science of the Total Environment
|January 9, 2021
Summary
Intertidal wetlands can persist with current sea level rise (SLR) if sediment accretion keeps pace. Accelerated SLR beyond wetland accretion capacity will cause significant species shifts and habitat loss.
Area of Science:
- Ecological modeling
- Coastal geomorphology
- Climate change adaptation
Background:
- Intertidal wetlands face decline due to climate change, especially sea level rise (SLR).
- Wetland adaptation strategies include upslope retreat, sediment capture, and organic accretion.
- Assessing accretion rates against SLR is crucial for predicting wetland resilience.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the impact of sediment accretion versus sea level rise (SLR) on saltmarsh species composition.
- To develop an eco-hydraulic model for predicting inundation and species distribution.
- To forecast future saltmarsh composition under various SLR and accretion scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Developed an eco-hydraulic calculation method for tidal inundation statistics.
- Utilized high-resolution hydrodynamic models to simulate SLR and accretion scenarios.
- Applied the eco-hydraulic method to predict saltmarsh species composition changes.
Main Results:
- Saltmarsh species composition and extent are predicted to persist under current SLR rates.
- Accelerated SLR exceeding wetland accretion capacity will lead to species shifts and increased open water.
- Current sediment accretion rates may be insufficient for future adaptation to projected SLR.
Conclusions:
- Wetland resilience to SLR is dependent on the balance between accretion and inundation.
- Effective adaptation requires increased sediment capture and elevation change to match accelerating SLR.
- Proactive management strategies are needed to enhance coastal wetland adaptation to climate change.
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