Predictive factors associated with complete pathological response after neoadjuvant treatment for rectal cancer

A proportion of 10 to 30% of patients treated by chemoradiotherapy followed by total mesorectal excision surgery for a locally advanced rectal cancer can achieve a complete pathological response. We aimed to identify predictive factors associated with complete pathological response or no response and to assess the impact of each response on survival rates.

Patients treated with long course chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced and/or node positive rectal cancer from 2010 to 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. Statistical analysis was carried out to determine predictors of tumor regression and treatment outcomes.

Records were available on 70 patients. In the univariate analysis, clinical factors associated with complete tumor response were tumor mobility in digital rectal examination (P=0.047), a limited parietal invasion (P=0.001), clinically negative lymph node (P<0.001) and a circumferential extent greater than 50% (P=0.001). On the other hand, a T4 classification and an endoscopic tumor size greater than 6cm were associated with no response to treatment (P=0.049 and P=0.017 respectively). On multivariate analysis, T2 clinical classification and N0 statement before treatment were independent predictive factors of pathologic complete response (P<0.001 and P=0.001) and a delayed surgery after 12 weeks was associated with no response to treatment (P=0.001).

The identification of predictive factors of histological response may help clinicians to predict the prognosis and to propose organ preservation for good responders.