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Behavioral structure of users in cryptocurrency market.
Ayana T Aspembitova1,2, Ling Feng2,3, Lock Yue Chew1,4,5
1Division of Physics and Applied Physics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.
This study analyzes cryptocurrency market behavior using blockchain data, identifying four common trading strategies. User behavior differs significantly between Bitcoin and Ethereum markets, especially during price fluctuations and major events.
Area of Science:
- Behavioral economics
- Computational finance
- Network analysis
Background:
- Human behavior significantly influences financial market dynamics.
- Limited empirical data exists on financial agent behavior from market analysis.
- Blockchain technology offers transparent transaction data for behavioral inference.
Purpose of the Study:
- Empirically infer behavioral patterns of cryptocurrency users.
- Analyze user behavior in Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.
- Identify distinct behavioral types and trading strategies.
Main Methods:
- Temporal complex network analysis of user properties.
- K-means clustering combined with Support Vector Machines for behavioral classification.
- Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum cryptocurrency markets.
Main Results:
- Identified four common user strategies: optimists, pessimists, positive traders, and negative traders.
- Observed distinct user behavior compositions between Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.
- Bitcoin users exhibit short-term views during local events; Ethereum users exhibit long-term views.
- Ethereum users show more pessimism during systemic events; Bitcoin users show more optimism.
Conclusions:
- Blockchain data enables empirical inference of financial agent behavior.
- Distinct behavioral strategies and market-specific responses exist in cryptocurrency markets.
- Understanding these behaviors is crucial for market analysis and prediction.
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