Towards Dynamic lockdown strategies controlling pandemic spread under healthcare resource budget

COVID-19 is one of the deadliest pandemics in modern human history that has killed nearly a million people and rapidly inundated the healthcare resources around the world. Current lockdown measures to curb infection spread are threatening to bring the world economy to a halt, necessitating dynamic lockdown policies that incorporate the healthcare resource budget of people in a zone. We conceive a dynamic pandemic lockdown strategy that employs reinforcement learning to modulate the zone mobility, while restricting the COVID-19 hospitalizations within its healthcare resource budget. We employ queueing theory to model the inflow and outflow of patients and validate the approach through extensive simulation on real demographic and epidemiological data from the boroughs of New York City. Our experiments demonstrate that this approach can not only adapt to the varying trends in contagion in a region by regulating its own lockdown level, but also manages the overheads associated with time-varying dynamic lockdown policies.