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A SIQ mathematical model on COVID-19 investigating the lockdown effect
Archana Singh Bhadauria1, Rachana Pathak2, Manisha Chaudhary3
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gorakhpur University, Gorakhpur, U.P, India.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|January 13, 2021
Summary
This study on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) dynamics reveals that complete lockdown is essential to eradicate the virus. Partial lockdowns require supplementary measures like contact tracing and quarantine to control COVID-19 spread.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Public Health
Background:
- The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, rapidly spreading globally.
- India imposed a nationwide lockdown on March 24, 2020, restricting international travel to curb the spread of COVID-19.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the impact of lockdown measures on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.
- To identify key parameters influencing the basic reproduction ratio (R0) of the disease.
Main Methods:
- A three-dimensional mathematical model utilizing nonlinear ordinary differential equations was developed.
- Stability theory of nonlinear ordinary differential equations was applied to analyze the model.
- The basic reproduction ratio (R0) was computed to assess disease transmissibility.
Main Results:
- The study indicates that complete lockdown is necessary for the complete eradication of COVID-19 from the population.
- Without stringent measures, the disease is predicted to persist.
- Partial lockdowns alone are insufficient to eliminate the virus.
Conclusions:
- Complete nationwide lockdown is the most effective strategy to eliminate COVID-19.
- Combining partial lockdown with contact tracing and quarantine measures can effectively control disease spread.
- Mathematical modeling provides crucial insights into optimizing public health interventions during pandemics.
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