Predictors of Early and Late Mortality after Endoscopic Resection for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

In esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) comprising 90% of cases with esophageal cancer, endoscopic resection (ER) is recommended for patients with negligible risk of ESCC-related mortality. In fact, a main cause of death in patients underwent ER is not ESCC. We thus aimed to clarify the predictors for early and late mortality among patients underwent ER of ESCC between 2005 and 2018 at our institution. In this retrospective cohort study, we investigated the prognosis and predictors of early and late mortality with the cut-off value of 3 years. We enrolled 407 patients with a median 69 months follow-up. The 5-year overall survival and disease-specific survival, an indicator of ESCC-related mortality, were 83.4% and 98.4%, respectively. In multivariate Cox analyses, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG-PS), consisting of six grades by a patient's level of activity, ≥ 2 was a predictor for early and late morality [hazard ratio (HR), 7.21 (P = 0.007) and 15.62 (P = 0.021), respectively]. Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), which is an index for predicting mortality by comorbid conditions, ≥ 2 was also a predictor for both mortality [HR, 2.97 (P = 0.017) and 1.90 (P = 0.019), respectively]. However, age was a predictor only for late mortality [HR, 3.08 (P = 0.010) in 80-84 years and 8.38 (P < 0.001) in ≥ 85 years]. Considering the predictive ability for early mortality, we propose that ECOG-PS and/or CCI are better indices compared with age in deciding treatment strategy after ER for ESCC.