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Is Lockdown Effective in Limiting SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic Progression?-a Cross-Country Comparative Evaluation Using

Bruno Mégarbane1,2, Fanchon Bourasset3,4, Jean-Michel Scherrmann3,4

  • 1Department of Medical and Toxicological Critical Care, Lariboisière Hospital, Federation of Toxicology, APHP, , Paris, France. bruno.megarbane@lrb.aphp.fr.

Journal of General Internal Medicine
|January 14, 2021
PubMed
Summary

Early lockdown measures significantly reduced severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and shortened epidemic duration. Gradual deconfinement following restrictions proved effective in controlling the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic.

Keywords:
COVID-19SARS-CoV-2epidemiclockdownmodelingpharmacokinetics

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • The effectiveness of lockdown measures in controlling the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic remains a subject of debate.
  • Assessing the risk-benefit balance of these interventions is crucial for public health policy.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the impact of lockdown strategies on SARS-CoV-2 epidemic progression across nine diverse countries.
  • To compare the effectiveness of different lockdown approaches, including early-onset restrictions and gradual deconfinement versus no lockdown or abrupt deconfinement.

Main Methods:

  • A cross-country comparative analysis was performed using a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)-based mathematical model.
  • Pharmacokinetic principles were integrated to refine the model.
  • Data on daily new SARS-CoV-2 cases were sourced from the World Health Organization.
  • Key epidemiological parameters, including infection and recovery rates, basic reproduction numbers (R0), and compartment dynamics, were estimated.

Main Results:

  • Countries implementing early-onset lockdown and gradual deconfinement (New Zealand, France, Spain, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, UK) showed rapid reductions in SARS-CoV-2 cases, with infection half-lives (t1/2β) ≤ 14 days and basic reproduction numbers (R0) ≤ 1.5.
  • Sweden (no lockdown) and the USA (variable lockdown) experienced prolonged periods of high infection rates (t1/2β of 23 and 40 days, respectively) and extended recovery times (t1/2γ of 112 and 179 days, respectively), with higher R0 values (4.9 and 4.4).

Conclusions:

  • Early implementation of lockdown measures, coupled with a phased approach to deconfinement, effectively curtails the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and minimizes infections.
  • Lockdown should be recognized as a vital public health intervention for mitigating epidemic spread.