Integrating epidemiological and genetic data with different sampling intensities into a dynamic model of respiratory

Ivy K Kombe1, Charles N Agoti2, Patrick K Munywoki2

  • 1KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, KEMRI Centre for Geographical Medical Research-Coast, P.O. Box 230-80108, Kilifi, Kenya. ivkadzo@gmail.com.

Scientific Reports
|January 15, 2021
PubMed

Insights

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in infants often originate within the household. Pre-school and school-aged children are key transmitters, highlighting their potential role in RSV vaccination strategies.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Virology
  • Genomics

Background:

  • Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes severe respiratory illness in young children, especially infants.
  • Understanding infant RSV infection sources is crucial for effective vaccination strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify the sources of infant respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections within households.
  • To guide vaccination strategies by analyzing transmission dynamics using genomic data.

Main Methods:

  • Extended a dynamic host-level model with whole genome sequencing data.
  • Analyzed data from 493 individuals across 47 households during one RSV season in coastal Kenya.
  • Combined social-temporal shedding data with genomic data for transmission analysis.

Main Results:

  • Over half of RSV-A and RSV-B cases originated within households.
  • 45% of infant infections resulted from transmission by other household members.
  • Children aged 2-13 years were responsible for 68% of infant transmissions within households.

Conclusions:

  • Household transmission is a significant source of infant RSV infections.
  • Pre-school and school-aged children play a critical role in transmitting RSV to infants.
  • These age groups represent a potential target population for RSV vaccination programs.

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