Defining early recurrence in patients with resected primary colorectal carcinoma and its respective risk factors

There is no evidence-based definition of early recurrence following resection of colorectal cancer. The purpose of this study is to define a point that discriminates between early and late recurrence in patients who have undergone colorectal cancer resection with curative intent and to analyze associated risk factors.

A retrospective single-center cohort study was performed at a university hospital recognized as a comprehensive cancer center, specializing in colorectal cancer surgery. Patient data were retrieved from a prospectively maintained institutional database. Included patients underwent resection for primary, non-metastatic colorectal carcinomas with curative intent between 1995 and 2010. Aims of the study were (1) to define the optimal cut-off point of recurrence-free survival based on overall survival using a minimum p value approach and (2) to identify patterns of initial recurrence and putative risk factors for early recurrence using regression models.

Recurrence was diagnosed in 412 of 1893 patients. Statistical analysis suggested that a recurrence-free survival of 16 months could be used to distinguish between early and late recurrence based on overall survival (p < 0.001). Independent risk factors for early recurrence included advanced pT categories (pT3,4/ypT3,4) and positive lymph node status (pN+/ypN+). Early recurrence was independent of site of recurrence and was associated with worse prognosis.

Recurrence of colorectal carcinoma within 16 months after primary treatment should be labeled as "early." Tumor categories pT3,4/ypT3,4 and positive lymph node status pN+/ypN+ are predictive of early recurrence.