An external exposome-wide association study of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

The risk factors for severe COVID-19 beyond older age and certain underlying health conditions are largely unknown. Recent studies suggested that long-term environmental exposures may be important determinants of severe COVID-19. However, very few environmental factors have been studied, often separately, without considering the totality of the external environment (i.e., the external exposome). We conducted an external exposome-wide association study (ExWAS) using the nationwide county-level COVID-19 mortality data in the contiguous US. A total of 337 variables characterizing the external exposome from 8 data sources were integrated, harmonized, and spatiotemporally linked to each county. A two-phase procedure was used: (1) in Phase 1, a random 50:50 split divided the data into a discovery set and a replication set, and associations between COVID-19 mortality and individual factors were examined using mixed-effect negative binomial regression models, with multiple comparisons addressed, and (2) in Phase 2, a multivariable regression model including all variables that are significant from both the discovery and replication sets in Phase 1 was fitted. A total of 13 and 22 variables were significant in the discovery and replication sets in Phase 1, respectively. All the 4 variables that were significant in both sets in Phase 1 remained statistically significant in Phase 2, including two air toxicants (i.e., nitrogen dioxide or NO₂, and benzidine), one vacant land measure, and one food environment measure. This is the first external exposome study of COVID-19 mortality. It confirmed some of the previously reported environmental factors associated with COVID-19 mortality, but also generated unexpected predictors that may warrant more focused evaluation.