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Modelling the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on violent discipline against children

Camilla Fabbri1, Amiya Bhatia1, Max Petzold2

  • 1London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom.

Child Abuse & Neglect
|January 16, 2021
PubMed

Insights

The COVID-19 pandemic may significantly increase child violence at home. Lockdowns could lead to a 35-46% rise in violent discipline, necessitating proactive policy interventions to protect children.

Area of Science:

  • Global Health
  • Child Development
  • Sociology

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic presents a heightened risk for increased domestic violence against children.
  • Empirical data collection on child violence is hindered by ethical, safety, and data quality challenges.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on violent discipline within households.
  • Utilizing multivariable predictive regression models to forecast changes in child discipline practices.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of pre-pandemic Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) data from Nigeria, Mongolia, and Suriname.
  • Development of a conceptual model linking COVID-19 pandemic factors to risk factors for violent discipline.
  • Application of country-specific linear models to predict changes in violent discipline scores under "high" and "low" restriction scenarios.

Main Results:

  • A "high restrictions" scenario predicts a 35%-46% increase in violent discipline scores across the studied countries.
  • A "lower restrictions" scenario indicates a 4%-6% increase in violent discipline scores.

Conclusions:

  • Policymakers must anticipate and prepare for escalating rates of violent discipline during pandemic-related lockdowns.
  • Urgent planning is required to mitigate the rise in domestic violence against children during and after pandemic waves.
Abstract

Keywords:
COVID-19Corporal punishmentMICSPandemicPhysical violenceViolence against childrenViolent discipline

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