Fertility transition and socioeconomic development in districts of India, 2001-2016

The fertility-development relationship is bi-directional, context-specific, multi-phased and inconsistent over time. Indian districts provide an ideal setting to study this association due to their size, diversity and disparity in socioeconomic development. The objective of this study was to understand the association of fertility and socioeconomic development among the 640 districts of India. Data were drawn from multiple sources: Censuses of India 2001 and 2011; DLHS-2; NFHS-4; and other published sources. A district-level data file for Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and a set of developmental indices were prepared for the 640 districts for 2001 and 2016. Computation of a composite index (District Development Index, DDI), Ordinary Least Squares, Two Stage Least Squares and panel regressions were employed. By 2016, almost half of all Indian districts had attained below-replacement fertility, and 15% had a TFR of above 3.0. The DDI of India increased from 0.399 in 2001 to 0.511 by 2016 and showed large variations across districts. The correlation coefficient between TFR and DDI was -0.658 in 2001 and -0.640 in 2016. Districts with a DDI of between 0.3 and 0.6 in 2001 had experienced a fertility decline of more than 20%. The fertility-development relationship was found to be strongly negative, convex and consistent over time, but the level of association varied regionally. For any given level of DDI, fertility in 2016 was lower than in 2001; and the association was stronger in districts with a DDI below 0.45. The negative convex association between the two was prominent in the northern, central and eastern regions and the curves were flatter in the west, south and north-east. The increasing number of districts with low fertility and low development draws much attention. Some outlying districts in the north-eastern states had high TFR and high DDI (>0.6). Based on the findings, a multi-layered strategy in districts with low socioeconomic development is recommended. Additional investment in education, child health, employment generation and provisioning of contraceptives would improve the human development to achieve India's demographic goals.