Data-Driven Estimation of the Impact of Diversions Due to In-Flight Medical Emergencies on Flight Delay and Aircraft...

INTRODUCTION: In-flight medical emergencies (IFMEs) average 1 of every 604 flights and are expected to increase as the population ages and air travel increases. Flight diversions, or the rerouting of a flight to an alternate destination, occur in 2 to 13% of IFME cases, but may or may not be necessary as determined after the fact. Estimating the effect of IFME diversions compared to nonmedical diversions can be expected to improve our understanding of their impact and allow for more appropriate decision making during IFMEs.METHODS: The current study matched multiple disparate datasets, including medical data, flight plan and track data, passenger statistics, and financial data. Chi-squared analysis and independent samples t-tests compared diversion delays and costs metrics between flights diverted for medical vs. nonmedical reasons. Data were restricted to domestic flights between 1/1/2018 and 6/30/2019.RESULTS: Over 70% of diverted flights recover (continue on to their intended destination after diverting); however, flights diverted due to IFMEs recover more often and more quickly than do flights diverted for nonmedical reasons. IFME diversions introduce less delay overall and cost less in terms of direct operating costs and passenger value of time (averaging around 38,000) than do flights diverted for nonmedical reasons.DISCUSSION: Flights diverted due to IFMEs appear to have less impact overall than do flights diverted for nonmedical reasons. However, the lack of information related to costs for nonrecovered flights and the decision factors involved during nonmedical diversions hinders our ability to offer further insights.Lewis BA, Gawron VJ, Esmaeilzadeh E, Mayer RH, Moreno-Hines F, Nerwich N, Alves PM.