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Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model
Guillaume Marois1,2, Arda Aktas3
1Asian Demographic Research Institute, School of Sociology and Political Sciences, Shanghai University, 99 Shangda Rd., Shanghai, 200444, China. marois@iiasa.ac.at.
Scientific Reports
|January 20, 2021
Summary
Future population health is crucial for planning strategies for aging populations. Our study projects that improved education will lead to healthier future generations, though years lived in good health remain limited.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Population aging presents significant challenges and opportunities.
- Future health trajectories of elderly populations are essential for strategic planning.
- Understanding health determinants is key to adapting to demographic shifts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present an innovative methodological framework for projecting individual health.
- To model the interactions between sociodemographic, health, mortality, and risk factors.
- To project future health trajectories for European cohorts using dynamic microsimulation.
Main Methods:
- Developed the ATHLOS-Mic dynamic microsimulation model.
- Utilized SHARE data for selected European countries (2015-2060).
- Analyzed the impact of sociodemographic characteristics, health, mortality, and risk factors.
Main Results:
- Each generation is projected to be healthier than the previous due to better educational attainment.
- Individuals will live approximately 18 more years, but only 5 in good health.
- Removing the health impact of low education significantly improves projected health and lifespan.
Conclusions:
- Educational attainment is a key driver of improved future population health.
- Interventions targeting educational disparities can substantially enhance healthy life expectancy.
- Dynamic microsimulation provides a valuable tool for projecting health outcomes in aging populations.
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