Looking for the right balance between human and economic costs during COVID-19 outbreak

Since the beginning of Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) disease outbreak, there has been a heated debate about public health measures, as they can presumably reduce human costs in the short term but can negatively impact economies and well-being over a longer period.

To study the relationship between health and economic impact of COVID-19, we conducted a secondary research on Italian regions, combining official data (mortality due to COVID-19 and contractions in value added of production for a month of lockdown). Then, we added the tertiles of the number of people tested for COVID-19 and those of health aids to evaluate the correspondence with the outcome measures.

Five regions out of 20, the most industrialized northern regions, which were affected both earlier and more severely by the outbreak, registered both mortality and economic value loss above the overall medians. The southern regions, which were affected later and less severely, had low mortality and less economic impact.

Our analysis shows that considering health and economic outcomes in the assessment of response to pandemics offers a bigger picture perspective of the outbreak and could allow policymakers and health managers to choose systemic, 'personalized' strategies, in case of a feared second epidemic wave.