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Published on: November 10, 2023
Rational policymaking during a pandemic
Loïc Berger1,2, Nicolas Berger3,4, Valentina Bosetti2,5,6
1Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IÉSEG School of Management, University of Lille, Unité Mixte de Recherche 9221-Lille Economics Management, 59000 Lille, France; l.berger@ieseg.fr lhansen@uchicago.edu.
Abstract:
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, we argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.
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Decision Making: P-value Method
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses: a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can...

