Estimating the European CO₂ emissions change due to COVID-19 restrictions

The carbon dioxide variations generated by the socio-economic restrictions imposed by the management of the COVID-19 crisis are analysed in this paper for 23 European countries and 10 economic sectors. By considering the most up to date information on GDP and carbon intensity of production, this paper represents one of the first attempts to estimate the CO₂ emissions change that have taken place in Europe during the first six months of 2020. Results show that more than 195,600 thousand tons of CO₂ have been avoided between January and June 2020, compared to the same period of the previous year, representing a -12.1% emissions change. The largest reductions have taken place in the Manufacturing, Wholesale, Retail Trade, Transport, Accommodation and Food Service sectors, accounting for more than 93.7% of total CO₂ change. Spain, Italy and France have been the most affected areas with -106,600 thousand tons emissions drop. In line with the results provided by previous studies, this paper highlights that the geographical and the sectoral distribution of the CO₂ emissions change has been largely influenced by the magnitude of the COVID-19 impacts. In addition, the carbon intensity of production, characterizing the most affected economic activities, has been the main element of differentiation compared to the previous 2008 crisis. By providing preliminary estimation of the CO₂ emissions change that have taken place across geographical and sectoral activities, this paper contributes to the existing climate policy debate and can support future estimation of CO₂ variations both in a context of confinement release as well as in a context of reintroduced COVID-19 restrictions.